The El Nino meteorological phenomenon, which implies warmer waters than usual in the Pacific, has a 69% probability of being the strongest since there are records, the National Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States warned this Thursday.
In its most recent report, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center raised the possibility that El Nino, from October to December, is “a historic event that exceeds the strength” of previous phenomena until 1950, when records began, with 2.5 degrees Celsius above the usual temperature.
"With an event of this magnitude, the probability of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño is higher, but not guaranteed. In summary, El Nino is strengthening, with a greater than 90% probability of a very strong event during the fall and winter of 2026-27 in the northern hemisphere," he explained.
The agency raised its forecasts after detecting that El Nino, which emerged in June, strengthened during the last month, with temperature anomalies that exceeded 2 degrees Celsius on the surface of the eastern Pacific and up to 10 degrees below the surface.
The meteorological office declares the formation of El Nino when temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for “several consecutive months.”
El Nino is a climate phenomenon that involves warmer than normal waters in the Pacific and stronger westerly airs, resulting in increased vertical wind shear.
For countries in its impact zone, such as the United States, this means drier conditions and a warmer winter than usual, NOAA noted, although it will also mean "rain and possible flooding" in the south of the North American country.
El Nino winds also mean a higher chance of tropical cyclones in the Pacific, but a lower chance of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
In fact, the strengthening of El Nino led NOAA to lower its forecast for the Atlantic season on August 6 by estimating a maximum of 13 storms, below the historical average, but in the eastern Pacific it forecast up to 22 cyclones, above the average.
On the other hand, the climate agency reported that July was the hottest month in the history of the United States since there was a record, with an average temperature of almost 25 degrees Celsius, 1.8 degrees above the 20th century average.
