The global progress of democracy appears to be advancing in periodic waves, marked by periods of significant advancement followed by temporary setbacks. It is possible that the world is on the cusp of a pivotal moment, where the trajectory of democratic development is poised to shift in a positive direction.
Larry Diamond, a distinguished American political sociologist at Stanford University, has spent decades examining democracy globally.
Recent developments in Latin America and other regions, particularly on October 25, may signal a turning point in the global democratic downturn that has persisted for nearly two decades.
According to Diamond, incidents like these are not typically isolated events and often occur concurrently.
Historians have identified a total of three distinct democratizing waves that have swept the globe.
The period of global upheaval began in the 18th century with the revolutionary movements in the United States and France, and persisted through the 19th and early 20th centuries, ultimately culminating in the emergence of communist, fascist, and Nazi ideologies by the 1920s.
Following the conclusion of World War II, a second wave of a particular phenomenon emerged, but it gradually subsided in the 1960s with the occurrence of military coups in South America.
A significant shift in Portugal's government occurred in 1974, when a joint military and popular uprising brought an end to a long-standing dictatorship that had lasted from its inception until 2006.
Diamond cautions that it is premature to definitively conclude that the decline in democratic trends that began at that time has reversed, or that a fresh wave of global democratization is underway.
There are indications that this scenario may be achievable.
A recent telephone conversation was conducted with a prominent researcher affiliated with the Hoover Institution and the Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies, who also serves as co-founder and editor of the Journal of Democracy. The researcher had previously published an article on this topic in the Journal of Democracy.
Researchers have identified a phenomenon known as "islands of democratization," referring to regions or countries that have made significant strides in democratization despite being surrounded by authoritarian regimes.
A significant era in global history is characterized by a notable increase in transitions to democratic forms of government, with a substantial majority of such shifts occurring in a democratic direction.
A key factor in the current democratic landscape is the notion of momentum, characterized by a sustained period of democratic progress. During this wave, democratic values are increasingly adopted, and global support and trust in democracy continue to grow. As a result, societal aspirations, values, and expectations are shifting away from authoritarianism, towards a more democratic future.
The third wave of democratization is credited with resulting in the establishment of the largest number of democracies globally.
Global democratic trends experienced a significant downturn around 2006, with a notable decline in the number of countries classified as democracies. This period marked a shift away from democratic expansion and towards an increase in autocratic regimes, effectively halting the growth of democratic governance worldwide.
A notable decline in democratic progress has been observed globally over the past two decades, initially manifesting in the Global South, followed by Central and Eastern Europe, and most recently in the United States, where elected officials have undermined democratic institutions.
Democratic backsliding has been a pervasive trend, with instances such as the military coup in West Africa standing out. However, the most prevalent form of erosion has been the gradual undermining of democratic institutions, including civil society and the rule of law.
A notable trend has emerged in several countries, characterized by a shift from democratic governance to electoral autocracy, also referred to as a competitive authoritarian regime. This phenomenon has been observed in Hungary and Turkey, and was nearly realized in Poland. Additionally, former US President Donald Trump has attempted to implement similar measures in the United States on two separate occasions.
Concerns have been raised regarding the trajectory of democratic governance in India, Mexico, and Indonesia, with evidence suggesting that India and Mexico have entered a phase of competitive authoritarianism, while Indonesia has made significant progress in this direction.
The nation's net balance sheet has historically trended downward, indicating a decline in democratic governance.
Evidence is emerging that a shift in the established pattern may be underway.
The article suggests that October 2026 may be viewed in hindsight as a pivotal moment marking the potential reversal of the democratic recession.
Three significant events took place on October 25, a date with considerable historical and cultural significance.
In Serbia, students who had demonstrated remarkable bravery in protesting against the entrenched corruption and rising authoritarianism under Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić secured a significant triumph in the parliamentary elections, with their coalition now holding a majority and poised to establish a new government.
Following a similarly decisive outcome experienced by Viktor Orban in Hungary a few months prior, Vučić was compelled to acknowledge the defeat with haste.
In Brazil, the second round of the country's presidential election took place, pitting incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing populist candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently incarcerated for attempting to undermine democratic institutions. Lula, who had trailed in the initial round, secured a decisive victory in the second round with a significant margin.
Brazil's President Lula and his party have been associated with complexities in upholding fully democratic values and practices. However, the outcome of the election represented a decisive rejection of a clearly authoritarian right-wing populist alternative.
On the same day, María Corina Machado, leader of Venezuela's democratic opposition, successfully entered the country, aiming to mobilize and facilitate a transition to democratic governance by organizing the population.
A series of pivotal occurrences have taken place, each with substantial implications for the future.
The recent U.S. midterm elections may signal a shift in voter preferences, with certain trends emerging that could have implications for future electoral outcomes.
The recovery from the democratic recession will be a gradual process requiring sustained investment over time.
The 2024 US elections served as a pivotal moment, with Donald Trump facing a strong rebuke for his perceived authoritarianism, corruption, and disregard for civil liberties and the rule of law. This development is seen as a significant factor, both practically and symbolically, in the potential decline or reversal of the global authoritarian trend.
The United States continues to hold a position of significant global influence as the world's preeminent democracy.
The Role of the US in Global Democratization Reevaluated.
US Secretary Madeleine Albright once described the country as indispensable for the future of global freedom, considering its significant size, resources, and substantial allocation of aid to democratic causes.
Over the past decade, the United States has faced significant challenges following Donald Trump's emergence on the electoral stage, highlighting the need for humility in addressing the global revitalization of democracy. To achieve this goal, it is essential to collaborate with like-minded countries in promoting a responsible global order that upholds fundamental values such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.
Global sentiment has grown weary of the United States' stance on the world stage, with many viewing the country as a hypocritical leader that fails to uphold its own founding principles and respect international law.
The United States has suffered a significant erosion of trust and respect among key international partners, including those in Europe, Canada, and various countries in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East.
The United States cannot simply rejoin the global democratic dialogue without acknowledging its past actions. The country's historical influence, often referred to as its indispensable status, cannot be taken for granted.
Rebuilding international trust and forming a more inclusive, democratic alliance will require a shift away from a U.S.-centric model, towards a more collaborative and equitable global partnership.
Notably, two of the three pivotal events that took place on October 25 were located in Latin America.
The individual expressed a willingness to pursue a particular path if circumstances allowed for it, but noted that they do not hold short-term optimism.
The Brazilian government under President Lula da Silva has been criticized for its response to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's announcement of disputed election results on July 28, 2024.
Brazil is reportedly considering joining the United States in a potential Organization of American States (OAS) initiative to condemn the situation and call for a transition to democratic governance.
Brazil holds significant importance for the region's democratic landscape, particularly in the wake of Mexico's return to authoritarianism. As the only country, aside from the United States, capable of spearheading a renewed commitment to democracy in the hemisphere, Brazil's role is crucial. However, it appears that leading a democratic resurgence may not be a priority for Brazilian President Lula, nor align with his vision for the region.
Right-wing leaders in Latin America, including Argentina's Javier Milei, Chile's José Antonio Kast, Peru's Keiko Fujimori, and Colombia's Rodolfo Hernán de la Espriella, have drawn inspiration from authoritarian figures such as El Salvador's Nayib Bukele. It remains uncertain whether any of these leaders will spearhead efforts to revitalize democracy in the Americas or on a global scale.
Venezuela is likely to transition towards democracy within the next 18 months, with potential constitutional reforms, overhauls of the Judicial Power and the electoral court, and the conduct of free, fair, and inclusive national elections. These elections could potentially feature Maria Corina Machado as a candidate, provided they adhere to agreed-upon standards.
The potential outcome would have significant and far-reaching consequences worldwide.
And why ?
In the past two decades, following the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, no authoritarian regime has successfully transitioned to democracy, with the notable exception of the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine a decade later, which revitalized democratic institutions in the country. Bangladesh, while making progress, remains short of being considered a full democracy.
The potential transition to democracy in Venezuela following decades of authoritarian rule could have significant and far-reaching implications for global politics and international relations.
Uncertainty persists regarding the timing and conduct of upcoming elections in Venezuela, while in Brazil, a shift in Congress towards the right could hinder President Lula's agenda. Meanwhile, deepening political polarization in several American countries, including the US, raises concerns about the extent to which democratic norms may be compromised. It is premature to assume that antidemocratic trends have been reversed.
A correction has been noted in the previous statement.
It is premature to declare that the current situation marks a definitive shift from the global democratic recession to a new era of democratic advancement worldwide.
The events of October 25 may serve as a pivotal moment marking the start of significant developments, but it is premature to determine its full impact at this time. Similarly, on April 25, 1974, it was impossible to predict the far-reaching consequences of the Carnation Revolution in Portugal, which ultimately sparked a global democratic movement.
A prominent critic of former US President Trump expresses optimism about the country's future, citing concerns over his administration's perceived corruption, incompetence, and disregard for democratic norms and the rule of law. The individual believes that Trump's inability to fulfill campaign promises and his hypocritical public image have weakened the MAGA movement, potentially leading to a period of decline.
The outcome of this situation is likely to be a long-term process, but it appears unlikely that another president with a MAGA agenda will be elected in the United States.
A shift in the US presidential landscape is anticipated for 2028, with analysts predicting a significant shift towards a more reformist and democratically committed leader.
Critics have raised concerns that Mexico is reverting to an autocratic government, a notion that may not align with the views of many Mexicans, who express support for President Claudia Sheinbaum.
A significant number of Mexicans share the sentiment that their country has deviated from its democratic principles.
Determining whether a country is a democracy is not solely based on the level of popular support its president enjoys. This is evident in the case of El Salvador, where President Bukele's high level of popularity coexists with authoritarian tendencies, highlighting the need for a more nuanced definition of democracy.
Under the leadership of the dominant Morena party, significant changes have occurred in Mexico, including a decline in the enforcement of the rule of law and a reduction in the space for authentic political opposition. Furthermore, the party has exerted control over the country's Judiciary through the election of judges, a process that has raised concerns about the democratic nature of the mechanism.
Mexico's Supreme Court and Election Court have lost their independence, with the ruling party, Morena, exhibiting a controlling attitude towards key institutions and state bureaucracy, mirroring the behavior of the PRI prior to the country's transition to democracy.
A regime that exhibits autocratic tendencies and behavior should be classified as an autocracy, regardless of its retention of limited electoral and pluralist components.
Global democratic trends appear to be shifting, as evidenced by significant increases in voter turnout in recent elections in Brazil, Colombia, and the United States, as well as the Serbian elections. This surge in electoral participation raises questions about a potential global resurgence of democracy.
High voter turnout in Germany prior to the Nazi party's rise to power in 1933 is a complex phenomenon. In instances of intense political division, where the stakes are high and the outcome appears crucial to a nation's survival, voter participation tends to increase. This phenomenon can be either a positive indicator of citizens defending democratic values or a concerning sign of a country's deep-seated divisions.
The surge in participation observed in various countries, including Hungary, Serbia, the US, and Brazil, was largely driven by a desire to uphold democratic values and restore the rule of law. In Brazil, this trend was particularly pronounced, with many citizens seeking to revitalize democratic norms and achieve economic growth through meaningful reforms.
Growing voter participation can be a double-edged indicator, potentially signifying both a healthy democracy and severe societal polarization.
The desire for increased electoral participation is a commendable goal, but it is essential to approach the issue with caution to avoid misinterpretation of the results.
The upcoming elections in several key European nations, including Spain, France, Italy, and Poland, are poised to have significant implications for the global democratic landscape.
The upcoming results from France are likely to hold significant importance, given its influential position within the European Union and its impact on Francophone nations worldwide.
A right-wing populist leader, such as Marine Le Pen, gaining power in France would pose a significant challenge to the European Union's efforts to promote global democracy, uphold democratic values, maintain stability, and strengthen democratic commitment.
The Italian prime minister's performance will be closely monitored, particularly given concerns surrounding Giorgia Meloni's potential stance on Ukraine. Her administration's handling of relations with Russia and European unity will be a key indicator of its approach to the conflict. Initial assessments suggest that Italy's response to the crisis has been more positive than anticipated, with notable support for Ukraine.
The outcome of Marine Le Pen's leadership remains uncertain, and it is essential to observe the results of her governance once she assumes power, particularly the nature of any coalition she may form.
The populist right in Europe continues to exhibit significant momentum, driven by widespread discontent with the perceived inability of the traditional center parties, encompassing both left and right-wing ideologies, to effectively address the needs of vulnerable populations.
The developments in this case are ongoing and continue to unfold.
The BBC World Service has launched a new mobile app, offering users a comprehensive platform for accessing global news and content. The app features news alerts, documentaries, and in-depth analysis, providing a one-stop destination for users to stay informed. However, it's worth noting that the new app is not currently available for download in the United Kingdom or the United States.
To stay up-to-date with our latest content, you can also find us on various social media platforms, including YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and X, as well as our dedicated WhatsApp channel.
To stay up-to-date with our latest and most compelling stories, consider subscribing to our newsletter, which is delivered every Friday with a curated selection of our top content.
