Who wouldn't want a check for up to$ 2, 000 coming from price income, if the idea seems appealing?

Amid inflation and a high cost of living, the proposal has generated expectations. However, there is a considerable gap between political desire and legislative reality that still separates the proposal from becoming a reality. For the past few months, President Donald Trump has insisted that his administration is considering returning some of the revenue generated by tariffs as dividends to taxpayers in 2026. In a cabinet meeting on December 2, Trump asserted that next year could mark a historic record for tax refunds. “Next year is projected to be the biggest refund season ever seen, and we’re going to be returning money from tariffs, as we’ve literally collected trillions of dollars,” Trump stated. “We’re going to give people a nice dividend, as well as reduce the debt,” he added, according to public statements. Despite the president's enthusiasm, there is no real guarantee that these checks will ever be issued. Unlike other recent payments, such as the $1,776 checks sent in December to 1.45 million members of the armed forces, funded by the Department of Defense, tariff dividends would require legislation passed by Congress. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, explained this clearly in an interview on CBS News' "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on December 21. "The deficit compared to last year is down by $600 billion, so this summer I wasn't so sure there was room for a check like that. But now I'm pretty sure there is, and that's why I expect next year the president will put forward a proposal to Congress to make that happen," Hassett said. The big question is: Where would the money come from? Trump has said it would come from tariffs. However,Hassett clarified that government revenue is not handled in isolation. “We have taxes, we have tariffs, we have revenue from many places, and then Congress decides how that money is spent,” Hassett noted on “Face the Nation.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also been cautious. Speaking to Fox News on the November 16 “Sunday Morning Futures” program, he explained that internal discussions have considered rebates focused on “families earning less than, say, $100,000,” but without confirming figures or dates. The numbers are raising doubts among experts. Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, estimated that the rebates could cost more than $300 billion. “The only problem,” she wrote in X on November 9, “is that the new tariffs have only generated $120 billion so far.” According to the foundation, net tariff revenues in fiscal year 2026 would be around $216 billion. While the Tax Foundation estimates that tariffs could generate $2.1 trillion over a decade, that figure drops to $1.6 trillion when considering foreign retaliation and negative economic effects. Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects revenues of $3.3 trillion over ten years, primarily due to a faster reduction in debt and interest payments. Not everyone sees the checks as a good idea. Scott Lincicome, vice president of the Cato Institute, stated on November 17 that “giving Americans their own money back is inefficient redistribution,” and warned that new debt-funded checks could be inflationary. Furthermore, the plan could face legal hurdles. The Supreme Court has questioned whether the president has the authority to impose certain tariffs, which could invalidate some future revenue. In July, Congress will have another opportunity to debate the issue with the American Workers Cashback Act of 2025, championed by Senator Josh Hawley. The proposal envisions checks of at least $600 per person, and up to $2,400 for a family of four. It has not yet been passed. “So, in other words, don’t count on it,” commented journalist Margaret Brennan on CBS News after hearing Hassett speak. You might also be interested in:In an interview with Fox News on the November 16th episode of “Sunday Morning Futures,” he explained that internal discussions have considered refunds focused on “families earning less than, say, $100,000,” but without confirming figures or dates. The numbers are raising doubts among experts. Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, estimated that the dividends could cost more than $300 billion. “The only problem,” she wrote in X on November 9th, “is that the new tariffs have only generated $120 billion so far.” According to the foundation, net tariff revenues in fiscal year 2026 would be around $216 billion. Although the Tax Foundation calculates that the tariffs could generate $2.1 trillion over a decade, that figure drops to $1.6 trillion when considering foreign retaliation and negative economic effects. For its part, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects revenues of $3.3 trillion over ten years, primarily from a faster reduction in debt and interest payments. Not everyone sees the checks as a good idea. Scott Lincicome, vice president of the Cato Institute, stated on November 17 that “giving Americans their own money back is inefficient redistribution,” and warned that new debt-funded checks could be inflationary. Furthermore, the plan could face legal hurdles. The Supreme Court has questioned whether the president has the authority to impose certain tariffs, which could invalidate some of the future revenue. In July, Congress will have another opportunity to debate the issue with the American Workers Cashback Act of 2025, championed by Senator Josh Hawley. The proposal envisions checks of at least $600 per person, and up to $2,400 for a family of four. It has not yet been approved.

After hearing from Hassett, columnist Margaret Brennan on CBS News commented," So, in other words, don't count on it. "

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