Democrat James Talarico appears for the first time with a wider lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for a Senate seat, according to a new survey that places the election as one of the most competitive in the country heading into the 2026 elections.

According to a survey by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR), Talarico obtains 45% of voting intentions compared to 40% for Paxton, with 14% of voters still undecided. The study was conducted among 1,048 likely voters from July 15 to 17, with a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.

An independent-driven advantage

Beyond the general result, the poll reveals that Talarico expands his support among sectors that usually define state elections. The Democratic legislator leads Paxton among independent voters by 43% to 23%, while among moderates the difference reaches 54% to 20%. In addition, it registers a favorable performance among voters without a college degree, a group that has historically favored the Republican Party.

Another fact that draws attention is the public image of both candidates. The survey shows that Talarico maintains a positive balance of opinion, while Paxton registers a negative perception, a factor that could influence as the campaign progresses.

Republicans question the poll

Ken Paxton's campaign, backed by President Donald Trump, downplayed the results. His spokesman, Nick Maddux, rejected the credibility of the study by pointing out that TPOR is directed by Luke Warford, a Democratic strategist and founder of a political committee linked to electoral infrastructure for that party.

Despite this, the result coincides with other recent averages that show a much closer race than usual in Texas, a state where Democrats have not won a state election for more than three decades. Analysts consider that issues such as affordability, cost of living and perception of candidates could be decisive in the coming months.

Although the prediction markets still favor Paxton, the new poll places James Talarico in an unprecedented position in the race and confirms that the Senate election will be one of the most watched.

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