Millions of people receiving Social Security benefits already have a date to mark on the calendar. The cost-of-life adjustment, known as COLA, will begin to be defined with upcoming inflation data and all points to the official announcement of the increase for 2027 coming in mid-October.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) calculates this increase each year with the aim that the benefits maintain part of their purchasing power against the increase in prices. The mechanism has been in use since 1975 and depends on how inflation behaves during a specific period of the year.
For retirees and other people who rely on Social Security checks, knowing the percentage of the next COLA is important because it determines how much they could increase their monthly payments from 2027. For now, there is no definitive figure, although there are already estimates that allow anticipating the possible increase.
The key date will be October 14, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the data of the Consumer Price Index (IPC) corresponding to September, at 8:30 a.m., Eastern time.
This report is especially important because the SSA uses the inflation data for the third quarter, i.e. the data for July, August and September, to calculate the COLA for the following year.
Once the September date is known, the Administration usually announces the adjustment shortly thereafter. Therefore, beneficiaries can expect the official COLA percentage for 2027 to be known during October, after all the data needed for the calculation is available.
Before that date, estimates may change. The August inflation data, which will be published by the BLS on September 11, will provide a clearer signal on the possible increase that beneficiaries will receive.
One of the most recent projections points to a COLA of 3.6% by 2027, an estimate corresponding to the Senior Citizens League, a senior advocacy group that tracks inflation and periodically calculates how much Social Security could increase.
If this percentage is confirmed, the increase would be greater than the 2.8% applied to benefits in 2026, although it would be very far from the extraordinary increases registered in previous years. For example, the COLA of 2023 was 8.7%, one of the highest increases in recent decades.
The most recent data show that inflation moderated slightly during July, although it still remains above 3%. Price behavior has also been marked by rising energy costs and international tensions.
The Cleveland Federal Reserveins an inflation forecast close to 3.37%, while predictive markets expect a slightly lower level, though still above 3.2% or 3.3%.
The next important data will be the August report. If the inflation trajectory remains stable or re-moderates, the COLA projections could change again; similarly, a rise in prices could push the estimates upwards.
For now, 3.6% is a reference and not a promise on how much Social Security checks will increase. Beneficiaries will have to wait until October to know the official percentage, once the SSA has the inflation data needed to complete its calculation.
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