The United States is no longer just the host that wanted to play a good role. After beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 and advancing to the round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup, projections are beginning to look at it differently.

The team led by Mauricio Pochettino won an uncomfortable match, resisted with ten men after the expulsion of Folarin Balogun and closed the classification with a goal from Malik Tillman. It was also their first victory in a World Cup direct elimination event since 2002.

The result changes the picture and also the calculation of the models. Before the tournament, the United States appeared as a secondary candidate, with low chances of lifting the Cup, although with good chances of advancing to the phase. Now he is among the 16 best and has a specific route: he will face Belgium on July 6 in Seattle.

What the models say now

Nate Silver's PELE model, based on 100,000 simulations, updates World Cup odds as the tournament progresses. Their projections continue to place powers such as Spain, Brazil, France and Argentina among the big favorites, but the victory against Bosnia improves the United States' scenario because it eliminates a barrier that was previously only a possibility.

Even so, the jump does not automatically make the American team a favorite for the title. In prediction models, advancing one round increases the chances, but the next opponent weighs a lot. And Belgium is not a minor crossroads: it comes from beating Senegal 3-2 and arrives with greater international experience.

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