This analysis explores effective strategies for combating the drug epidemic in the United States—generally known as the “fentanyl crisis”—following the designation by the US government of major drug cartels and other Latin American gangs or criminal groups as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs). (English).

The text details the serious shortcomings of recent approaches designed to address this problem and anticipates the futility of unilateral US military action against Latin American cartels. It also explains how US-led strategies that have relied heavily on militarization (such as Plan Colombia and the Merida Initiative) and the kingpin strategy, as well as the possibility of military intervention in countries like Venezuela and Mexico, are ineffective in addressing a highly complex phenomenon.

The drug trafficking problem in our continent actually involves organized criminal networks as complex-adaptive systems and is also an indicator of a serious public health crisis in the United States. This text focuses on the need to improve inter-American relations and recommends concrete steps to more effectively mitigate the so-called fentanyl crisis and drug-related violence in Latin America. Finally, it proposes a comprehensive strategy to address this problem, focusing on its root causes on both sides of the Mexico-United States border.

Introduction / Context

The United States is currently facing a massive drug addiction crisis, or synthetic drug epidemic, where fentanyl continues to be the leading cause of overdose deaths. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), overdose deaths exceeded 100,000 for three consecutive years (2021–2023), surpassing the number of deaths from traffic accidents and firearms.Although these figures have decreased slightly in recent times, they remain at extremely high levels and reveal a serious public health problem in the United States that has not been adequately addressed in recent decades. Since former President Richard Nixon declared the “war on drugs” in 1971, efforts to limit the entry of illicit drugs into the country have been largely unsuccessful. Considering the logic of U.S. drug policy and its influence (and/or imposition) on the rest of the continent, as well as the past results of related actions, it is foreseeable that approaches to combating the fentanyl crisis in Trump’s second term will fail again. The so-called “anti-narcoterrorist” approach, which includes U.S. military action against cartels in other countries of the Americas, is unlikely to reduce drug consumption in the United States and could have severe negative repercussions for the relationship between the United States and its regional partners.

Main Argument

U.S. supply-side drug policies, such as the so-called kingpin strategy (or the focus on the heads of criminal organizations), have proven ineffective in addressing the drug epidemic in the country. A focus on the demand and distribution of synthetic drugs within the United States is needed, which must be considered in order to implement a successful comprehensive drug strategy. Furthermore, it is key to recognize that when we talk about Latin American drug cartels, we are not referring to oligopolies or a collection of criminal corporations, but rather to a network of actors and illicit businesses (local and transnational) that form complex adaptive systems. For example, the recent reconfiguration of the Sinaloa Cartel—which maintained operational continuity despite the decapitation of its leadership (such as the capture of “El Chapo” Guzman in 2016 and the eventual arrest of “El Mayo” Zambada in 2024)—demonstrates the resilience and distributed intelligence that characterize these adaptive systems. Furthermore, the organization's ability to absorb leadership losses, sustain logistical operations, and realign alliances across borders exemplifies emergent behaviors within a complex network. In this context, understanding the problem requires the use of complexity theory, network criminology, and systems thinking. Likewise, drug markets in the United States involve multiple actors within the country who are not formally members of Latin American cartels (including local distributors, transportation companies, corrupt authorities, among others).The current approach to combating the fentanyl crisis requires more than an offensive against cartels and other Latin American criminal gangs (now considered foreign terrorist organizations or FTOs), since a global supply chain fuels addiction within the country. Therefore, a comprehensive strategy must be implemented, considering that the fentanyl epidemic is part of a public health crisis and that the so-called cartels are not organizations with a pyramid structure or well-defined leadership, but rather are structured as networks. The current approach—which marks a turning point in regional security governance—will most likely fail. It should be discarded.

Public Policy Context

On the first day of his second term, Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14157, through which he designated several Mexican cartels and other Latin American criminal groups (such as Mara Salvatrucha and Tren de Aragua) as foreign terrorist organizations; The list has since expanded. Subsequently, the U.S. government revoked visas for politicians and froze assets of individuals and organizations allegedly linked to cartel activities. The U.S. Treasury Department also designated three Mexican financial institutions allegedly involved in money laundering for the cartels. The Trump administration has also considered direct military operations at sea and on foreign soil against these organizations. For weeks, U.S. armed forces have attacked vessels off the Venezuelan coast, and Trump is even evaluating possible direct military action within that country. Overall, the U.S. government has intensified supply-side drug control policies (focusing on the cartels) and maintains a strategy of decapitating criminal organizations (focusing on their leaders) abroad. This approach has not and will not solve the root of the problem and could be detrimental to the country and its neighbors in the Americas. In the second installment, more effective ways to solve this problem are explained, and a comprehensive strategy to combat the so-called fentanyl crisis in the region is proposed.

Note: This article was published in English on November 15 of this year as part of the “Position Papers” series of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University (FIU).

(*) Dr. Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera is a professor at the Schar School of Politics and Government at George Mason University.

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