Among the many questions that have arisen since the dramatic events of last weekend in Caracas—and there are many—one of the most persistent centers on the woman who now leads what U.S. officials call the “interim authorities” of Venezuela.

Why Delcy?

What is it about Delcy Rodriguez, daughter of a former Marxist guerrilla and lieutenant of the ousted dictator Nicolas Maduro, that caught the attention of the Trump administration?

And why did Washington opt for an avowed Chavista revolutionary to keep in power, instead of backing opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, whose opposition movement won the 2024 presidential election, according to the evidence she presented?

The answer, according to a former US ambassador to Venezuela, is simple.

“They prioritized stability over democracy,” says Charles Shapiro, who was George W. Bush’s ambassador to Caracas between 2002 and 2004.

“They maintain the dictatorial regime without the dictator. The henchmen are still there.”

“And I think this is extremely risky.”

But the An alternative, which involved a radical regime change and supporting Machado's opposition movement, would have entailed other dangers, such as potential infighting among opposition figures and alienating Venezuelans—perhaps as many as 30 percent—who voted for Maduro. In his astonishing press conference Saturday morning, President Trump surprised many observers by dismissing Nobel Peace Prize winner Machado, saying she “doesn’t have the respect” of Venezuela, and describing Rodriguez as “nice.” “I was very surprised to hear President Trump dismiss Maria Corina Machado,” said Kevin Whitaker, former deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Caracas. “Her movement was elected by a massive majority (in the 2024 elections)… So by dismissing Machado, he effectively dismissed that entire movement.”The speed and apparent ease with which Maduro was ousted and Rodriguez was installed led some observers to speculate that the former vice president might have been involved in the plot. “I think it’s very telling that we just went after Maduro and the vice president survived,” said former CIA agent Lindsay Moran. “It’s obvious there were sources at the highest levels. My initial speculation was that those high-ranking sources were in the vice president’s office, or even with the vice president herself.” But Phil Gunson, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG) who lives in Caracas, says the conspiracy theory doesn’t hold up to close scrutiny because of the enormous power still wielded by Defense Minister General Vladimir Padrino Lopez and hardline Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, both loyal allies of Maduro. “Why would she betray “Is Maduro being left internally defenseless against those who actually control the weapons?” Gunson asks. Rather, the decision to back Rodriguez came after warnings that Machado’s rise to power could generate dangerous levels of instability. In October, an ICG report warned that “Washington should be wary of regime change.” “The risks of violence in any post-Maduro scenario should not be underestimated,” the report urged, noting that elements of the security forces could launch a guerrilla war against the new authorities. “We warned the people in the administration: this isn’t going to work,” Gunson says. “There will be violent chaos, it will be their fault, and they will have to take responsibility for it.” On January 5, the Wall Street Journal reported on a classified U.S. intelligence analysis that reached the same conclusions and determined that members of the Maduro regime, including Rodriguez, were better positioned to lead a temporary government. The White House has not commented publicly on the report but made it clear that it plans to work with Rodriguez in the near future. “This masks a certain pragmatic realism on the part of the Trump administration,” says Henry Ziemer, a senior fellow at the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. But the challenges, he says, are just beginning. “Capturing Maduro was the easy part. The broader reconstruction of Venezuela—the oil, anti-drug, and democratic goals—will take much longer to materialize.” For now, however, Rodriguez appears to be someone the Trump administration believes it can work with.

“She's been kind of an economic reformer,” says Gunson. “She is aware of the need for economic opening and is not opposed to the idea of ??bringing back foreign capital.”

Ziemer agrees that Rodriguez might not find it difficult to comply with Washington’s orders regarding welcoming US oil companies, offering greater cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking, and even reducing Venezuela’s relations with Cuba, China, and Russia, especially if this involves the gradual lifting of US sanctions.

“I think she can comply with that,” he notes.

“But if the United States asks for genuine progress toward a democratic transition, that becomes much more difficult.”

At the moment, this does not appear to be among Washington’s priorities.

On January 7, Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke of a three-stage plan for Venezuela, beginning with stabilizing the country and marketing 30 to 50 million barrels of oil under US supervision.

The plan would lead to what Rubio called it “a process of reconciliation” that includes amnesties for opposition forces, the release of political prisoners, and the rebuilding of civil society. “The third phase, of course, will be one of transition,” he said, without elaborating. Article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution requires new elections within 30 days of a president being “permanently unavailable,” something that would seem to apply to a situation like Maduro’s, who is in a New York jail awaiting trial. But in an interview with NBC News on January 5, President Trump stated that there were no elections on the horizon. “First we have to fix the country,” he said. “Elections cannot be held.”

Gunson says Washington’s decision not to pursue regime change in the short term might make sense, but the lack of a medium- or long-term perspective is disappointing.

“Trump may be getting something out of this, but Venezuelans aren’t,” he says. “The average Venezuelan is being hurt as always.”

The Trump administration is touting the possibility of international oil companies reinvesting in Venezuela’s corrupt and moribund oil infrastructure, but Gunson cautions that the reality could be more complex.

“No one is going to come here with the tens of billions of dollars required to start the recovery process if the government is illegitimate and there is no rule of law,” he says.

When former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez designated Nicolas Maduro as his successor,Shortly before his death in 2013, the move was described as Chavez's "dedazo," a colloquial term meaning "pointing the finger"—a personal appointment that bypasses the normal democratic process. Ambassador Shapiro sees a parallel with Delcy Rodriguez's rise to power. "This is Trump's dedazo," he says.

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