With the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, Donald Trump has demonstrated more forcefully than ever his faith in the power of his will, backed by the brute military force of the United States. At his behest, the US has Maduro behind bars and will now “run” Venezuela.

The US president made the announcement at an extraordinary press conference with enormous implications for US foreign policy worldwide from his Florida residence, Mar-a-Lago.

Trump stated that the United States will be in charge in Venezuela “until we can make a safe, proper, and judicious transition.”

He said that his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, had spoken with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who reportedly told him: “We will do whatever you need… She, I think, was quite nice, but she really doesn't have a choice.”

Trump gave few details. He stated that “we are not afraid to deploy troops on the ground if necessary.”

But does he really think he can govern Venezuela remotely?

Will this demonstration that he will back up his words with military action, lavishly praised at Mar-a-Lago by both Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, be enough to transform Venezuela and intimidate Latin American leaders into submission?

All indications are that he believes something similar.

The evidence suggests it will not be easy or smooth.

The respected think tank International Crisis Group warned in October that Maduro's fall could lead to violence and instability in Venezuela.

That same month, The New York Times reported that diplomatic and defense officials in the first Trump administration had conducted war games about what might happen if Maduro fell. Their conclusion was the prospect of violent chaos as armed factions vied for power. The removal and imprisonment of Nicolas Maduro is a stunning affirmation of US military power. The US assembled a massive armada against Venezuela and achieved its objective without losing a single American life. A disastrous track record:Maduro had ignored the will of the Venezuelan people by dismissing his own electoral defeat, and his departure will undoubtedly be celebrated by many of his citizens. But the implications of the US action will resonate far beyond Venezuela's borders. The atmosphere at the Mar-a-Lago press conference was triumphalist, as Trump and his team celebrated what was, undeniably, a textbook operation carried out by highly professional US forces. The military operation is only the first stage. The US track record of achieving regime change by force over the past 30 years is disastrous. Political follow-up is what determines the success or failure of the process. Iraq descended into a bloody catastrophe after the 2003 invasion. In Afghanistan, two decades and billions of dollars invested in the attempt at national reconstruction were swept away in a matter of days following the US withdrawal in 2021. Neither of those countries was in the US's "backyard." However, the specters of past interventions in Latin America and the threat of others to come are not much more promising. Trump debuted a new nickname, the "Donroe Doctrine," for the declaration made by President James Monroe in 1823, which warned other powers not to interfere in the US sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere. "The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we've way outgrown it," Trump said at Mar-a-Lago. “Under our new national security strategy, US dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never again be challenged,” he proclaimed. He said that Colombian President Gustavo Petro had to “watch his backside.” Later, he told Fox News that “something will have to be done about Mexico.” Cuba is undoubtedly also on the US agenda, driven by Rubio, whose parents are Cuban-American. The United States has a long history of armed intervention in Latin America. I was in Haiti in 1994 when President Bill Clinton sent 25,000 troops and two aircraft carriers to impose regime change. The Haitian regime then collapsed without a single shot being fired. Far from ushering in a better future, the 30 years since have been a period of almost uninterrupted misery for the Haitian people. Haiti is now a failed state dominated by armed gangs. Donald Trump spoke of “making Venezuela great again,” but not about democracy. I have dismissed the idea that Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, should lead the country. "I think it would be very difficult for her to be the leader. She doesn't have the support... She doesn't have the respect." He made no mention of Edmundo Gonzalez, whom many Venezuelans consider the legitimate winner of the 2024 elections. Instead, the United States, at least for the time being, has backed Maduro's vice president, Delcy Rodriguez. Although there must have been some kind of internal collusion that gave the US military the privileged information necessary to depose Maduro,the regime created by his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, appears to be intact. It is unlikely that the Venezuelan armed forces, despite the humiliation their generals may feel at their inability to oppose the US attack, will accept Washington's plans. The military and civilian supporters of the regime have enriched themselves through networks of corruption that they will not want to lose. The regime has armed civilian militias, and Venezuela has other armed groups. These include criminal networks, as well as Colombian guerrillas who backed the Maduro regime in exchange for refuge. Natural Resources The US intervention in Venezuela highlights some of the fundamental pillars of Trump's worldview. He makes no secret of how he covets the mineral wealth of other countries. He has already tried to extract benefits from Ukraine's natural resources in exchange for military assistance. Trump makes no secret of his desire to control Venezuela's vast mineral reserves, nor his belief that US oil companies must now be compensated for what he claims was theft through expropriations ordered by the late President Hugo Chavez. “We're going to extract a tremendous amount of wealth from the soil, and that wealth will go to the people of Venezuela, and to the people outside of Venezuela who used to be in Venezuela, and it will also go to the United States of America in the form of reimbursement,” Trump said. This will deepen fears in Greenland and Denmark that the president is looking north as much as south. The United States has not abandoned its desire to absorb Greenland, both for its strategic position in the Arctic and for the natural resources it contains, which are becoming more accessible as its ice melts due to global warming. The operation against Maduro also represents another blow to the idea that the best way to govern the world is to follow a set of agreed rules, as established in international law. That idea was already battered before Donald Trump took office, but he has repeatedly made it clear, both in the US and internationally, that he believes he can ignore laws he doesn't like. European allies, desperate not to anger him, are scrambling to find ways to say they support the rule of international law without condemning the fact that the operation against Maduro is a flagrant violation of the UN Charter. The US justification that its military was simply assisting in the execution of an arrest warrant against a drug kingpin posing as Venezuela's president is weak, especially given Trump's declarations that the US will now control the country and its oil industry. Just hours before Maduro and his wife were captured, he had met with Chinese diplomats at his palace in Caracas. China condemned the US action, stating that “US hegemonic acts seriously violate international law and Venezuela's sovereignty, and threaten peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean region.” It added that the US should “stop violating the sovereignty and security of other countries.”

Even so, China could see a precedent set by the US action. Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province and has declared that returning it to Beijing's control is a national priority.

In Washington, that is certainly the fear of the Democratic vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Senator Mark Warner. He issued a statement saying that the leaders of China and others would be watching closely.

“If the United States claims the right to use military force to invade and capture foreign leaders it accuses of criminal conduct. prevents China from claiming the same authority over Taiwan's leadership? What stops [Russian President] Vladimir Putin from alleging a similar justification for kidnapping the president of Ukraine? Once this line is crossed, the rules containing global chaos begin to collapse, and authoritarian regimes will be the first to exploit it.”

Donald Trump seems to believe that he dictates the rules, and that what applies to the US under his leadership doesn't mean others can expect the same privileges. But that's not how the world of power works.

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