Artificial intelligence (AI) could transform the U.S. labor market much earlier than many workers expect. Bill Gates warns that the advance of this technology will be so fast that millions of jobs could be affected over the coming years, from office posts to manual work.
The co-founder of Microsoft explained in a new essay that AI is advancing at a “surprising” pace, far superior to other technological revolutions. This leaves less time for, workers and governments to prepare for the changes that could come to the labour market.
“AI will be responsible for legal work, customer care, medicine, software and manufacturing. It will impact these industries quickly, over the course of a decade rather than several generations,” wrote Bill Gates, Microsoft co-founder. “Some new jobs will be created, but without the right policies, there will be many fewer than those that exist today.”
Gates believes the risk will increase as artificial intelligence systems improve their reasoning capabilities. Companies already use these tools to analyze data and perform other tasks that previously depended on human workers, especially in office jobs.
“The biggest change for workers will occur when AI provides virtually error-free work,” Gates wrote. “At that point, it will be able to operate on its own without human supervision, and companies will have all the economic incentives to afford it.”
This transformation could also complicate young people’s entry into the labour market. If companies need fewer employees to perform basic or entry-level tasks, those looking for their first job might find fewer opportunities to start a career.
But office jobs’t be the only ones affected, Gates also anticipates advances in robotics capable of competing with workers who perform physical activities.
“I think ‘smart’ robots will start competing with humans in some physical tasks — in the construction and hospitality sectors, for example — by the end of the decade,” Gates wrote.
In the face of this scenario, the entrepreneur considers it necessary to modify some policies to reduce the incentives that companies have to replace people with machines. One of its proposals is to set taxes related to the use of robots and AI systems.
“At present, if you’re an employer and you hire someone, you’re paying taxes on their income,” Gates wrote. “But if you buy a robot, you can usually deduct it immediately as business expenditure. The tax system encourages you to replace people with machines.”
Gates also explains that some work could be reserved for humans, including the care of older adults, an activity in which he considers that human interaction will continue to have an important value.
“Some countries could insist that it be humans who take care of the elderly,” Gates wrote. “But a country like Japan, which has an increasingly small workforce and doesn’t have enough young people to take care of the elderly, could welcome a caregiver robot.”
The businessman believes that policymakers should start preparing from now on for the economic and social changes that artificial intelligence can cause. Workers’ training and new rules for companies could be crucial in addressing the transition.
“I think we need time to prepare for the period of social, political and economic turmoil we are about to enter,” Gates said. “Those who need the most time are those who have the least: the accountant who is replaced by a robot or the worker who earned $20 an hour and loses his job to a robot who earns $10 an hour.”
Gates’ warning does not mean that all jobs will disappear. Artificial intelligence can also create new opportunities, but the challenge will be to get workers the time and tools to adapt before new technologies profoundly change the U.S. labor market.
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